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We are living in a dollar-dominated world, a fact most famously captured by John Connally, President Nixon’s Treasury Secretary, who once told a group of global finance ministers “the dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem”. Students of economic history will be aware of the disruption that a strong US dollar can cause, however, at times such as this it is important to remember that the global economy is cyclical, and such periods eventually do pass.

As mentioned in my previous blogs I am an avid Watford football club supporter. Although there are some ups and (a lot more) downs, being a Watford supporter has had one positive outcome. It’s enabled me to cope with the ever-changing UK political situation. Since David Cameron resigned as Prime Minister in 2016, following the UK’s vote to leave the EU, there have been three UK Prime Ministers over the preceding six years, with the fourth set to be announced.

The third quarter started with bond yields falling, equities in the midst of a sizeable rally, and a perception that increasing evidence of a slowdown in the US and Europe would lead to a relatively short tightening cycle and a more dovish Fed. It ended with an increasing probability of recession, yet the most hawkish Fed since the Volcker era, bond markets in disarray and equities at new lows for this cycle.

Three weeks ago, I had just landed in Morocco and with impeccable timing, as I worked out how to use Agadir airport’s ATM, Sterling tanked on the back of the UK government’s now well pored over ‘mini-budget’. I found it mildly amusing that the ticker for the Sterling-Dirham currency pairing is GBPMAD. It certainly felt like it! Of course, this wasn’t a bout of Dirham strength but a Sterling maelstrom resulting from the aforementioned budget, and the Pound was in freefall against every major currency.

Like it or not, there is no doubt that social media is now an integral part of our lives, with our online presence an extension of who we are, and for many, who they aspire to be.

There were almost three billion monthly active users on Facebook in the second quarter of this year, some 37% of the global population. For a business, social media offers a treasure trove of potential customers, but still so many seem to get it wrong when advertising through these channels.

All through life our brains like to use “general rules of thumb” when dealing with problems. These rules may come through personal experience or maybe they are more prescriptive and laid down by doctrine.

When dealing with problems I have sometimes found it useful to use a “factor of three”. For example, if I plan to do a DIY job in the house, bitter experience tells me it will take three times as long as I might expect. Such a guide can help avoid the shock of under-estimation of an outcome.