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Global Matters Weekly – Treasury hunt

While the world’s attention has been focussed on the horrific events in Israel and Gaza, the storm brewing in bond markets reached a new intensity, with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond this week crossing a milestone of 5%, the highest since before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This matters a great deal to financial markets globally, its impact shouldn’t be underestimated. US Treasuries are the world’s greatest safe-haven asset, and the 10-year yield is the world’s discount rate. When it moves sharply, as now, it reverberates globally and immediately.

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Global Matters Weekly – Base effects

Our everyday lives involve countless decisions made under uncertainty. Incomplete, complex, and often conflicting information can steer our thinking away from crucial underlying factors that are likely to be more beneficial inputs into decision making. One such input are base rates, which can repeatedly be ignored when we perceive new information to be more relevant to our individual situation.

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Global Matters Weekly – Fly me to the Moon

The term “irrational exuberance” was popularized by former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, when he referred to the ebullient behaviour of investors towards internet stocks in the mid-1990s. Such behaviour ultimately led to the ‘Dot-Com Bubble” and subsequent stock market crash in the early 2000s. Investors rarely seem to learn from past booms and busts, and we frequently observe evidence of irrational exuberance across all asset classes.

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Global Matters Weekly – Responsible investment: here for good

A few years ago, the world of sustainable investment exploded; I couldn’t open a newspaper without seeing an article referencing the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) and every fund manager’s presentation suddenly included slides on how they consider ESG factors in their investment decisions.Roll forward to today and the narrative looks quite different…

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Global Matters Weekly – Risky business

Everyday decisions involve making balanced judgements between risks and rewards and we are essentially hardwired as humans to be natural risk management machines… Whether we’re making personal or investment choices, these always come with an element of risk. Therefore, it pays to thoroughly understand the risks involved in any venture, so that they can be managed and minimised.

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