Global Matters Weekly – Data, data everywhere and not a number to guide

All through life our brains like to use “general rules of thumb” when dealing with problems. These rules may come through personal experience or maybe they are more prescriptive and laid down by doctrine.

When dealing with problems I have sometimes found it useful to use a “factor of three”. For example, if I plan to do a DIY job in the house, bitter experience tells me it will take three times as long as I might expect. Such a guide can help avoid the shock of under-estimation of an outcome.