The first quarter of 2025 is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a new epoch, both geopolitically, as the new administration in the US rewrites the post-war global order, and economically, with an end to globalisation, replaced by revitalised nationalism. The energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new Trump administration, Trump 2.0, to implement its policy agenda has been breathtaking, with far-reaching consequences yet to be fully played out. An immediate impact of the endless flurry of tariff announcements and threats has been a steep rise in uncertainty and resultant damage to consumer and business confidence, reversing the optimism around US growth triggered by Trump’s election and his tax cutting, deregulating, pro-growth agenda. Fears of a sharp slowdown and recession have risen.
