The topsy-turvy tariff saga again dominated markets, but increasingly with a ‘TACO’ theme: Trump Always Chickens Out. De-escalation of tariff concerns along with a stream of positive AI related news underpinned risk assets in May, despite a mid-month wobble as debt sustainability concerns triggered a rise in bond yields, especially at longer maturities. Led by megacap tech stocks (Nvidia +24%, Magnificent 7 +14%), US equities returned 6.3% in May, global developed equities 5.9%, and emerging markets 4.3%, whereas bonds struggled, with US Treasuries –1.0% and global government bonds –0.9%. The 30Y US Treasury bond yield rose by 25bps over the month to 4.93%, having moved over 5% midmonth, levels last reached pre-GFC. A similar pattern was seen in other bond markets, with UK 30Y yields reaching the highest since 1998 and Japanese 30Y yields mid-month over 3%, the highest since the maturity was issued in 1999.
