The new year brought little in the way of new order as on 3rd January President Trump launched US strikes in Venezuela that culminated in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and the abrupt disruption of the Bolivarian leadership. At the time this was huge news, albeit not very impactful on financial markets, but it set a strong tone for and clear intent for how the US administration looked set to move forward. Whilst the oil price flickered, and despite the country having the largest proven oil reserves, its estimated 1% of global production it did little to move prices in any meaningful way. More impactful has been the increased tension and build-up of US military hardware around the Persian Gulf. The world was horrified to see images of what is rumoured to be the bodies of thousands of Iranians killed as part of the mass protests across the country against the regime. Protester deaths were not confined to Iran, and the US administration found itself increasingly under pressure following the deaths of two protesters in Minneapolis at the hands of Trump’s ICE patrols. Under the premise of securing a nuclear deal, and perhaps to deflect from these domestic problems, the US is amassing a ‘huge armada’ in scenes reminiscent of Venezuela just weeks ago, the difference here being that the action taken against the South American country falls under the so called ‘Monroe Doctrine’, whereby the US asserts a growing sphere of influence over its western hemisphere neighbours. This culminated in an increasingly hostile dialogue with Denmark over ownership of the autonomous territory of Greenland, a prize Donald Trump was seeking for Arctic security reasons. The situation defused on the military dimension (but not diplomatically) after the President spoke at Davos, appearing to rule out military action.
