After a challenging first quarter, markets roared back to life in April as the punctuated ceasefire and US-Iranian dialogue saw animal spirits take hold and risk markets rally strongly. The geopolitical narrative gave way once again to the powerful tech and AI theme that has powered global markets for much of the past few years. In the Middle East, little of note had really changed. There were signs that both sides were seeking an end to the war, but the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed, episodic bombing in Lebanon continued, and the war in Ukraine raged on. Brent crude ended the month still nearly double where it started the year, and with futures markets still pricing $100 oil through September, it is hard not to think that corporate earnings and growth will come under pressure. Nonetheless, investors have welcomed this period of relative calm during Trump 2.0, and “not worse” news is good news.
