The 10% year to date return from global equities masks the best quarterly performance since Q4 2020 when ‘Vaccine Monday’ provided a financial adrenaline shot to markets. Indeed, the 13.8% return would be welcome in any calendar year, let alone over a three-month period. Clearly, the about-turn exercised by risk assets since 30th March, following (yet another) ceasefire announcement, flatters the discrete quarterly performance; on a rolling basis markets rallied harder post the tariff tantrum nadir in April 2025. Nonetheless, this is welcome performance against a challenging backdrop and a persisting war rhetoric. Yes, a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed between the US and Iran (some say ‘Misunderstanding’ is more appropriate), but as we’re witnessing at the time of writing it is far from lasting, peace remains fragile and maritime traffic at risk.
