Following one of the sharpest two-day falls on record triggered by President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff shock in early April, which left the S&P 500 index down by over 15% from the beginning of 2025, few would have predicted that by year end the bull market that began in October
Global markets were rattled by escalating US tariff threats, political pressure on central banks, and rising geopolitical tensions, offset partly by resilient Chinese markets and strong UK gilt performance, as investors rotated defensively amid elections, sanctions, and strained transatlantic relations. Download PDF
In December 2025, global financial markets consolidated after a year of strong returns, ending on a mixed note. US equities paused their rally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finishing the month flat to slightly negative, though they secured double-digit gains for the full year. Conversely, international and emerging markets
Heightened geopolitical tensions, policy shifts and economic fragility globally are likely to keep investors cautious, support safe-haven assets, and create selective opportunities in strategic sectors such as manufacturing, raw materials and exports. Download PDF
Markets appeared calm on the surface but experienced sharp swings as shifting expectations for Fed policy, weaker US data and speculation about a more dovish new Fed chair collided with rising doubts over the sustainability and valuation of the AI boom. Speculative AI names, semiconductors, defence stocks, crypto and China
On the surface, returns from most asset classes and markets appear to reflect a becalmed and uneventful month: global equities returned 0.3% (MSCI World index), and global government bonds 0.1%. However, this masks considerable intra-month volatility; the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest setback since April’s ‘Liberation Day’, with a
The unbroken run of equity market gains since April’s Liberation Day sell-off continued into October, driven again by AI stocks. The MSCI World index returned 2.0% in the month, with the S&P 500 +2.3% and the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) megacap tech stocks +5.2%. By the end of October, the
October saw a broad equity rally led by AI megacaps; non-US gains were muted in USD terms, and bond returns were driven more by FX than falling yields. Softer US labor/inflation set up a rate cut and QT halt, while a limited US–China truce eased select tech/tariff curbs; China stayed weak
Global markets enjoyed strong returns in Q3, driven by 3 main factors: Worst-case outcomes on tariffs were avoided; key deals were agreed with the EU and Japan, the US-China trade truce was extended by a further 90 days with rising optimism that a deal would be concluded, and the impact