Despite severe geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside viral outbreaks, global equity markets defied the "sell in May" adage to hit new record highs in May 2026, driven by an insatiable appetite for semiconductor stocks and fervor surrounding upcoming tech IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI. This powerful
Global markets were driven by geopolitical de-escalation in the Middle East, persistent inflation and rate uncertainty, and accelerating fragmentation in trade and monetary policy across major economies. Download PDF
Global markets were primarily driven by geopolitics rather than macroeconomic data, with energy security becoming the key determinant of inflation and growth expectations. Download PDF
April 2026 felt surprisingly constructive for global financial markets. Equities rallied as investors rotated back into AI-linked growth stocks, with semiconductor-heavy Asian markets especially strong. At the same time, Middle East tensions kept energy prices elevated, sustaining worries about inflation and complicating the outlook for central banks. Bonds were mixed:
The defining global macro theme was the inflationary energy shock caused by geopolitical tensions, which delayed expected monetary easing across many major economies. Download PDF
Surging oil prices, shipping disruption, and renewed inflation fears set the tone for equities, bonds, currencies, and global rate expectations. Download PDF
Middle East conflict triggers global oil shock, accelerating inflation pressures and weakening growth outlook across all major economies. Download PDF
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The first quarter of 2026 marked a notable shift from the relatively supportive conditions seen through much of 2025. Markets entered the year with optimism, underpinned by easing monetary policy, improving global manufacturing data, and resilient corporate earnings. However, this constructive backdrop was increasingly challenged - and ultimately overshadowed -