After a challenging first quarter, markets roared back to life in April as the punctuated ceasefire and US-Iranian dialogue saw animal spirits take hold and risk markets rally strongly. The geopolitical narrative gave way once again to the powerful tech and AI theme that has powered global markets for much
The defining global macro theme was the inflationary energy shock caused by geopolitical tensions, which delayed expected monetary easing across many major economies. Download PDF
Surging oil prices, shipping disruption, and renewed inflation fears set the tone for equities, bonds, currencies, and global rate expectations. Download PDF
Middle East conflict triggers global oil shock, accelerating inflation pressures and weakening growth outlook across all major economies. Download PDF
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By anyone’s standards the first three months of 2026 have been an extraordinary roller coaster of geopolitical posturing and market volatility. For all the headlines, one might be surprised that global equities were ‘only’ down 3.5% for the period, and US treasuries were flat. Were you not looking under the
Global markets were dominated by a geopolitical energy shock from the US–Iran conflict, driving inflation risks, growth downgrades, and volatility, temporarily offset by a ceasefire-triggered risk rally, but leaving a fragile and uncertain macro outlook. Download PDF
Across all regions, the dominant macro driver is clear: Geopolitics → energy shock → inflation → tighter financial conditions Download PDF
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks, dominated markets and politics worldwide, driving energy price volatility, shaping economic policy, and overshadowing domestic macroeconomic trends. Download PDF