Two months in, two regimes decapitated. With ten calendar months remaining for 2026 one wonders if there aren’t a few leaders of some questionable regimes mulling over their options right now. It’s not possible to reflect on February without jumping straight to the last day of the month which saw the rapid escalation of the US/Iranian nuclear talks stand-off. This culminated in the US and Israel launching joint missile attacks on Tehran, and Iran more widely, that led to the killing of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the decades long spiritual leader of the Islamic Republic, and numerous of his senior personnel. This has led to a significant repricing of both risk assets and rates expectations, with the former reacting to the latter as oil prices spiked on fears that a closed Strait of Hormuz, and the ensuing restricted supply of crude oil and refined products, would wake inflationary concerns from their slumber. And wake them they have. March will likely offer up time for a more considered appraisal of just how that could play out in the months – or possibly even years – ahead.
