On the surface, returns from most asset classes and markets appear to reflect a becalmed and uneventful month: global equities returned 0.3% (MSCI World index), and global government bonds 0.1%. However, this masks considerable intra-month volatility; the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest setback since April’s ‘Liberation Day’, with a
The unbroken run of equity market gains since April’s Liberation Day sell-off continued into October, driven again by AI stocks. The MSCI World index returned 2.0% in the month, with the S&P 500 +2.3% and the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) megacap tech stocks +5.2%. By the end of October, the
October saw a broad equity rally led by AI megacaps; non-US gains were muted in USD terms, and bond returns were driven more by FX than falling yields. Softer US labor/inflation set up a rate cut and QT halt, while a limited US–China truce eased select tech/tariff curbs; China stayed weak
Global markets enjoyed strong returns in Q3, driven by 3 main factors: Worst-case outcomes on tariffs were avoided; key deals were agreed with the EU and Japan, the US-China trade truce was extended by a further 90 days with rising optimism that a deal would be concluded, and the impact
September saw a continuation of the risk rally that started in the early summer months following the tariff debacle earlier in the year (which is far from over). Global equities gained more ground, underpinned by a resurgent US market and strong tech performance. Sovereign bond performance moderated after some front
August largely preserved July’s benign market conditions, characterized by tight credit spreads, subdued volatility, and broad-based gains. Market breadth improved as the S&P 500 set new highs while megacap technology underperformed (+1.4%) and small caps advanced strongly; Japan and China outperformed, whereas Europe was comparatively subdued. Dollar weakness supported non-US
The benign markets of July continued into August, with financial conditions remaining accommodating, reflected in historically tight credit spreads and low levels of volatility, the MOVE and VIX indices of bond and equity market volatility bumping along lows for the year. Global developed world equities returned 2.6% in August and
Markets remained stable in July 2025 despite trade uncertainty, as the US secured favorable tariff deals with Japan, the EU, and the UK, boosting its political and economic position. Strong US economic data, upbeat corporate earnings especially in AI and expectations of future rate cuts supported equities, with tech stocks
Despite the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s looming 1st August deadline for completion of tariff deals, July proved to be a relatively benign month in markets. In large part this was due to rising optimism that most key deals would be concluded before month end, avoiding worst-case outcomes, optimism which