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By anyone’s standards the first three months of 2026 have been an extraordinary roller coaster of geopolitical posturing and market volatility. For all the headlines, one might be surprised that global equities were ‘only’ down 3.5% for the period, and US treasuries were flat. Were you not looking under the
Global markets were dominated by a geopolitical energy shock from the US–Iran conflict, driving inflation risks, growth downgrades, and volatility, temporarily offset by a ceasefire-triggered risk rally, but leaving a fragile and uncertain macro outlook. Download PDF
Across all regions, the dominant macro driver is clear: Geopolitics → energy shock → inflation → tighter financial conditions Download PDF
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks, dominated markets and politics worldwide, driving energy price volatility, shaping economic policy, and overshadowing domestic macroeconomic trends. Download PDF
Two months in, two regimes decapitated. With ten calendar months remaining for 2026 one wonders if there aren’t a few leaders of some questionable regimes mulling over their options right now. It’s not possible to reflect on February without jumping straight to the last day of the month which saw
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz risks, dominated markets and politics worldwide, driving energy price volatility, shaping economic policy, and overshadowing domestic macroeconomic trends. Download PDF
February ended dramatically with joint US-Israeli strikes on Tehran killing Ayatollah Khamenei, sparking a repricing of risk assets as oil surged on Strait of Hormuz closure fears and inflation expectations jumped, taking rate cuts off the table. Beneath the geopolitical shock, markets told a broader story: ex-US equities outperformed significantly
The week’s dominant theme across regions was geopolitical energy shock → inflation risk → market volatility, all reshaping expectations for monetary policy and growth globally. Download PDF