Following one of the sharpest two-day falls on record triggered by President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff shock in early April, which left the S&P 500 index down by over 15% from the beginning of 2025, few would have predicted that by year end the bull market that began in October
On the surface, returns from most asset classes and markets appear to reflect a becalmed and uneventful month: global equities returned 0.3% (MSCI World index), and global government bonds 0.1%. However, this masks considerable intra-month volatility; the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest setback since April’s ‘Liberation Day’, with a
The unbroken run of equity market gains since April’s Liberation Day sell-off continued into October, driven again by AI stocks. The MSCI World index returned 2.0% in the month, with the S&P 500 +2.3% and the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) megacap tech stocks +5.2%. By the end of October, the
Global markets enjoyed strong returns in Q3, driven by 3 main factors: Worst-case outcomes on tariffs were avoided; key deals were agreed with the EU and Japan, the US-China trade truce was extended by a further 90 days with rising optimism that a deal would be concluded, and the impact
The benign markets of July continued into August, with financial conditions remaining accommodating, reflected in historically tight credit spreads and low levels of volatility, the MOVE and VIX indices of bond and equity market volatility bumping along lows for the year. Global developed world equities returned 2.6% in August and
Despite the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s looming 1st August deadline for completion of tariff deals, July proved to be a relatively benign month in markets. In large part this was due to rising optimism that most key deals would be concluded before month end, avoiding worst-case outcomes, optimism which
A quarter which began with Trump’s Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs announcement, delivering a seismic shock to global financial markets and one of the sharpest two-day falls on record on Wall Street, ended with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices at all-time highs. In between were threats to remove Powell as
The topsy-turvy tariff saga again dominated markets, but increasingly with a ‘TACO’ theme: Trump Always Chickens Out. De-escalation of tariff concerns along with a stream of positive AI related news underpinned risk assets in May, despite a mid-month wobble as debt sustainability concerns triggered a rise in bond yields, especially
In April US equities returned -0.7%, global developed equites 0.9%, emerging markets 1.3%, US Treasuries 0.6%, global government bonds 3.3% and gold 5.3% - seemingly nothing out of the ordinary, but market moves over the month mask traumatic day-to-day volatility amidst chaotic US policy making and deepening uncertainty, as the