The first quarter of 2025 is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a new epoch, both geopolitically, as the new administration in the US rewrites the post-war global order, and economically, with an end to globalisation, replaced by revitalised nationalism. The energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new
Rarely is it that changes in government have such immediate and far-reaching consequences as we are currently experiencing; the energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new Trump administration to implement its policy agenda has been breath-taking, leaving the rest of the world’s political leaders scrambling to formulate a response. Making
In a foretaste of what might lie ahead, markets in January were largely driven by the policy agenda of the new administration in the US. In his second term, President Trump is evidently in a hurry to make good on campaign promises, perhaps conscious that his powers could be weakened
2024 was characterised by stronger economic growth than expected, inflation falling but remaining above policy targets, the rate cutting cycle starting, but later and more cautiously than expected, geopolitics continuing to disrupt, although not derail, markets, and US exceptionalism to the fore. Equities, dominated by the US and especially its
For the second year in a row, global equities are on course for double-digit gains, far out-pacing returns from bond markets. So far this year, only gold of the major asset classes has outshone equities, with a gain of close to 30%. Within equities, the US has become all-dominant, driven
“The immediate market reaction following the election result was much more muted than 8 years ago, with moves mostly continuing the pattern of recent trading but volatility subdued” This monthly commentary capture the result of the US Presidential election on 5 November, and provide some comments on its implications. At
The key moment in the global monetary policy cycle finally arrived in September, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering its first interest rate cut of this cycle, the only surprise element being its size at 50bps. Other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England,
By the end of August, the big correction in markets in late July/early August seemed a distant memory, with markets quickly regaining most of the ground lost in that sudden and very brief risk-off event. Most asset classes and markets ended August in positive territory, with the MSCI World index
On the surface, markets appear to have been uneventful in July, with few sizeable moves over the month - the S&P 500 index was up 1.2%, MSCI World index of developed markets +1.8%, emerging markets +0.3%, and US Treasuries +2.1%. The most notable moves were in currencies, with the yen