The benign markets of July continued into August, with financial conditions remaining accommodating, reflected in historically tight credit spreads and low levels of volatility, the MOVE and VIX indices of bond and equity market volatility bumping along lows for the year. Global developed world equities returned 2.6% in August and
Despite the uncertainty created by Donald Trump’s looming 1st August deadline for completion of tariff deals, July proved to be a relatively benign month in markets. In large part this was due to rising optimism that most key deals would be concluded before month end, avoiding worst-case outcomes, optimism which
A quarter which began with Trump’s Liberation Day reciprocal tariffs announcement, delivering a seismic shock to global financial markets and one of the sharpest two-day falls on record on Wall Street, ended with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices at all-time highs. In between were threats to remove Powell as
The topsy-turvy tariff saga again dominated markets, but increasingly with a ‘TACO’ theme: Trump Always Chickens Out. De-escalation of tariff concerns along with a stream of positive AI related news underpinned risk assets in May, despite a mid-month wobble as debt sustainability concerns triggered a rise in bond yields, especially
In April US equities returned -0.7%, global developed equites 0.9%, emerging markets 1.3%, US Treasuries 0.6%, global government bonds 3.3% and gold 5.3% - seemingly nothing out of the ordinary, but market moves over the month mask traumatic day-to-day volatility amidst chaotic US policy making and deepening uncertainty, as the
The first quarter of 2025 is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a new epoch, both geopolitically, as the new administration in the US rewrites the post-war global order, and economically, with an end to globalisation, replaced by revitalised nationalism. The energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new
Rarely is it that changes in government have such immediate and far-reaching consequences as we are currently experiencing; the energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new Trump administration to implement its policy agenda has been breath-taking, leaving the rest of the world’s political leaders scrambling to formulate a response. Making
In a foretaste of what might lie ahead, markets in January were largely driven by the policy agenda of the new administration in the US. In his second term, President Trump is evidently in a hurry to make good on campaign promises, perhaps conscious that his powers could be weakened
2024 was characterised by stronger economic growth than expected, inflation falling but remaining above policy targets, the rate cutting cycle starting, but later and more cautiously than expected, geopolitics continuing to disrupt, although not derail, markets, and US exceptionalism to the fore. Equities, dominated by the US and especially its