Markets appeared calm on the surface but experienced sharp swings as shifting expectations for Fed policy, weaker US data and speculation about a more dovish new Fed chair collided with rising doubts over the sustainability and valuation of the AI boom. Speculative AI names, semiconductors, defence stocks, crypto and China
On the surface, returns from most asset classes and markets appear to reflect a becalmed and uneventful month: global equities returned 0.3% (MSCI World index), and global government bonds 0.1%. However, this masks considerable intra-month volatility; the S&P 500 index suffered its biggest setback since April’s ‘Liberation Day’, with a
Here is the NDL Fund Insight for December 2025. Download PDF
The unbroken run of equity market gains since April’s Liberation Day sell-off continued into October, driven again by AI stocks. The MSCI World index returned 2.0% in the month, with the S&P 500 +2.3% and the Magnificent 7 (Mag 7) megacap tech stocks +5.2%. By the end of October, the
Here is the NDL Fund Insight for November 2025. Download PDF
October saw a broad equity rally led by AI megacaps; non-US gains were muted in USD terms, and bond returns were driven more by FX than falling yields. Softer US labor/inflation set up a rate cut and QT halt, while a limited US–China truce eased select tech/tariff curbs; China stayed weak
Global markets enjoyed strong returns in Q3, driven by 3 main factors: Worst-case outcomes on tariffs were avoided; key deals were agreed with the EU and Japan, the US-China trade truce was extended by a further 90 days with rising optimism that a deal would be concluded, and the impact
September saw a continuation of the risk rally that started in the early summer months following the tariff debacle earlier in the year (which is far from over). Global equities gained more ground, underpinned by a resurgent US market and strong tech performance. Sovereign bond performance moderated after some front
August largely preserved July’s benign market conditions, characterized by tight credit spreads, subdued volatility, and broad-based gains. Market breadth improved as the S&P 500 set new highs while megacap technology underperformed (+1.4%) and small caps advanced strongly; Japan and China outperformed, whereas Europe was comparatively subdued. Dollar weakness supported non-US