The topsy-turvy tariff saga again dominated markets, but increasingly with a ‘TACO’ theme: Trump Always Chickens Out. De-escalation of tariff concerns along with a stream of positive AI related news underpinned risk assets in May, despite a mid-month wobble as debt sustainability concerns triggered a rise in bond yields, especially
In April US equities returned -0.7%, global developed equites 0.9%, emerging markets 1.3%, US Treasuries 0.6%, global government bonds 3.3% and gold 5.3% - seemingly nothing out of the ordinary, but market moves over the month mask traumatic day-to-day volatility amidst chaotic US policy making and deepening uncertainty, as the
The first quarter of 2025 is likely to be remembered as the beginning of a new epoch, both geopolitically, as the new administration in the US rewrites the post-war global order, and economically, with an end to globalisation, replaced by revitalised nationalism. The energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new
February has been a volatile month, mostly thanks to the sweeping and immediate impact of the new Trump administration’s policies, from aggressive trade tariffs to dramatic federal government restructuring and geopolitical interventions, including progress toward resolving the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts. The US has pivoted its security focus toward China,
Rarely is it that changes in government have such immediate and far-reaching consequences as we are currently experiencing; the energy, determination and ruthlessness of the new Trump administration to implement its policy agenda has been breath-taking, leaving the rest of the world’s political leaders scrambling to formulate a response. Making
January’s market saw volatility due to Trump’s aggressive tariff policies on imports from Mexico, Canada, China, and potentially the EU. While US growth remained strong early in the month, the emergence of China’s DeepSeek AI led to a sharp sell-off in tech stocks, particularly semiconductors like Nvidia, which lost $500bn
In a foretaste of what might lie ahead, markets in January were largely driven by the policy agenda of the new administration in the US. In his second term, President Trump is evidently in a hurry to make good on campaign promises, perhaps conscious that his powers could be weakened
In December, financial markets experienced weakness across most asset classes and regions. As inflation proved slower to normalise than initially anticipated, major central banks adopted a cautious approach to policy, aiming to prevent inflation running out of control. This tempered market expectations regarding the pace and magnitude of future interest
2024 was characterised by stronger economic growth than expected, inflation falling but remaining above policy targets, the rate cutting cycle starting, but later and more cautiously than expected, geopolitics continuing to disrupt, although not derail, markets, and US exceptionalism to the fore. Equities, dominated by the US and especially its